Archive for March, 2008

Braves-specific predictions

All-Stars: Teixeira, Johnson, Soriano
Biggest surprise: KJ (leads the league in runs)
Biggest disappointment: Peter Moylan
Chipper: 132 games played, .316/.409/.611, 1 DL stint
Glavine: 31 starts, 13-10, 4.65
Hampton: Hurt warming up, makes three rehab starts in Rome, never actually pitches in Atlanta uniform
Escobar: .300/.355/.427
Diaz: .322/.367/.486
Kotsay: 61 games, .260/.310/.380, DL in mid-June, never comes back, Blanco (eventually) takes over the job
Blanco: .280/.340/.340

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Chuck James will never make it as a LOOGY

As has been well documented, Chuck throws mostly fastballs and some changeups, while his slider is no good. Most LOOGYs throw breaking balls, lots of them. Here are pitch breakdowns for some of the more successful LOOGYs of 2007. (Pitch breakdowns from Bill James Online. Other stats from Baseball Reference.)

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Following The Money

In the 1990’s, Atlanta fans were like children in affluent families. If we saw something we liked, we got it with no questions asked. Be it free-agent acquisitions like Greg Maddux and Andres Galarraga or extended stays from current stars like Tom Glavine and Chipper Jones, Atlanta basically got what it wanted. Here we are in 2008, half a decade into an era of fiscal limitations in Atlanta, and every fan looks at every possible acquisition with the same question: Can we afford him? To understand the future possibilities, all we can do is look at the money and the future of the budget, thanks to the help of the wonderful Cot’s Baseball Contracts website.

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Annual absurd predictions

Normally I would have an “all predictions guaranteed” joke here, but I don’t have one this year. Sorry.

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Braves-Report Roundtable Discussion Part 2

Here is the second and final part of the Roundtable that team of bloggers recently completed. I would personally like to apologize to our readers for the delay in posting the completion of the the Roundtable. So without futher adu, here it is:   
- What realistic trade or free agent signing would help the team the most?
Mark :
Tough one. At the trade deadline last year, there were some rumors about Ian Snell coming over, and I think that might come up again. I think injuries might devastate our rotation this year, and we’ll need a guy to come in and help. Pittsburgh will be out of contention, and they may not want to go to arbitration with Snell. He’d be cheap financially, and I think we have the farm system to handle the two or three players they would want. We need a young, ace-type pitcher, and he could be it (3.76 ERA, 177 K, 68 BB). I also think Chuckie will be gone by the end of the season. Ian Snell for Brandon Jones, Cole Rohrbough, and Brent Lillibridge. As for a free agent, look for Freddy Garcia to be mentioned in June as he’ll be healthy and ready to go.
Brent : This is, of course, pure fantasy, but Atlanta should trade prospect Brandon Jones to the Boston Red Sox for Coco Crisp. Actually, I like Jones as much as Crisp, but we need reliable options if Mark Kotsay goes down. Crisp would do well in a platoon with Diaz if Cox opted to go that way, and he could split time with Kotsay as well, giving the CF much needed rest. Boston needs to end this stupid battle for CF, because we all know Ellsbury is going to get the job, or at least he should. Jones is worth at least taking a chance on if you’re Boston, and he can play both corners, which is desirable with Manny Ramirez getting older and JD Drew being, uh, JD Drew.Bsta : I can’t really say for sure. Maybe an extra arm in the pen, or a solid backup.
LSU31: I don’t see any specific move for a player x. I can see us shoring up the bullpen during the season near the deadline but right now that is it. CB: I think this team is fine as it is. I really like the depth we have at all positions. I could see us signing another, more experienced bullpen guy for the bullpen or trading for someone to work in long relief. But right now, I think we are set at all positions.
- Is this Bobby Cox’s last Spring Training?
Mark :
I hope and think not. He still has that desire to go out there every year, and I don’t think he’ll stop after this year. If we win the World Series, there’s a better chance he’ll retire, but I don’t feel like he will.Brent : This is a tough call, but I don’t think it is. I think he stays as long as Smoltz stays, and there aren’t any signs that Smoltz is retiring after this season.
Bsta : Let me put it like this, if the Braves win the World Series, yes. Bobby Cox will retire after that. If the Braves fall short, I think he’ll hang around for another year or two.
LSU31: Sadly, I think it is. I always thought Bobby and JS would leave the same year. But with JS leaving the GM post after last season, Bobby was already committed to coming back. I think Terry P. will be the manager for the 2009 championship. Hopefully, the Braves will send Bobby out on a good note.CB: I’m going to say no. Unless we win the World Series, of course. If we win the Big Enchilada this season, by all means, would love to see him retire as a winner (though him retiring is what enters my bad dreams every night). I really think he has a lot left in the tank. He loves doing this. He even said this is all he knows. I can see him taking a front office job or something with the Braves too. All I know is, he’s going to the Hall as a Brave, and that matters a lot to me.
- Who bats leadoff? Second?
Mark :
It seems as though Johnson will hit first and Escobar second because that is how it has worked so far. I think that’s the better arrangement because Kelly has a better reputation for getting on base, and with his new comfort at second base, he won’t work so hard and tire himself out like he did last year.
Brent :
It should be Kelly Johnson at leadoff with Yunel Escobar batting second. Johnson has a legitimately good on-base percentage, and that isn’t a flukey skill. He’s patient, he’s growing as a hitter, and he’s the guy you can trust to benefit the offense most. Escobar isn’t particularly patient, but he does make good contact, and that’s a skill I’d like to see in the #2 hole. Of course, I’ve always felt one of Bobby Cox’ flaws was how he cared more about pure speed than leadoff abilities when choosing his main man, so it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Escobar batting before Kelly Johnson, but I still feel as if that’s a waste of his greatest asset.
Bsta : Yunel will be our leadoff hitter. He’s one of those players who you can stick anywhere in the lineup, and he’ll produce. I expect him to provide a much needed spark in that spot that the Braves have been missing for quite some time now. Behind him we’re going to see Kotsay. Bobby will try Kotsay up front early on to see how he handles it. But I think the lineup is going to change so much that it’s pointless discussing this.LSU31:
I think Kelly will lead-off, after the success he had there last year. Maybe I am crazy but I can see him becoming the first lead-off hitter the Braves have had to hit .300 since Kenny Lofton. Yunel replaces both Edgar’s batting spot and position. He will hit about .285. He will not duplicate the success he experienced last year but will be a very valuable piece to the Braves puzzle in 2008.
CB: Tough question. I think that it’ll flip a lot, but I think the majority of the time, it could be Yunel leading off and getting on base with Kelly batting 2nd. That can flip a lot though, depending on how each player is doing. But I really think Yunel gets more at-bats at leadoff than Kelly.
- Which player who starts in the minors will be in the majors making significant contributions by season’s end?
Mark :
Charlie Morton. He seems to have righted the ship, and he’s impressed Cox with his dedication and stuff. Jurrjens or James will start the year at No. 5, but Morton works his way in when Hampton and/or Glavine go down.
Brent : This reminds me of the non-roster question from round 1, but I’m gonna say Jo-Jo Reyes for this answer. I think James and Hampton both share DL time, and Reyes gets another shot, and this time finally shows the major league talent that he has flashed so many times at lower levels.Bsta : The “surgin’”(that’s mine, don’t steal it) Jurrjen. He’s already putting up spectacular numbers in Spring Training. As I type this, Jair boasts an amazing 1.00 ERA in three games. I know it’s just Spring Training, but it’s still pretty damn impressive.
Now, the way he’s going, Jair should be on the team opening day, but Bobby will probably o with Chuck over him because of his experience and put Jair in Richmond. Don’t expect him to stay there long.LSU31:
Jordan Schafer. Schafer is just too good to be held down in the minors all season. He has been tearing the cover off the ball this spring. He plays good defense also. He will at the very least be called up when the rosters expand on September 1st.
CB: I could see Charlie Morton making a big impact with this team. I mean, you look at what Cox has said about him so far in the spring, and you also look and see that he has great stuff too makes me think he could be in the bullpen by the end of the year. Also, this guy, in my opinion, will start off the season in AAA but will have a major impact on the Braves before the end of May: Chuck James. If/when Hampton goes down, James could come up and step right in.
- Other than the top prospects in the system (Schafer, Lillibridge, Heyward, etc), what minor leaguer would you pay to go watch, and why?
Mark :
Does Teheran count as a top prospect? I really want to see what all the hype is about. If not, then Gorkys Hernandez would be my choice. He’s supposedly a five-tool player with blazing speed.
Brent : Considering we’re probably not going to see much of Julio Teheran this year (and he’s a top prospect, so that doesn’t really count), I think I’ve gotta go with Cody Johnson. There isn’t anyone in the organization (that includes the major league level) with as much raw power potential as Cody Johnson. He hit 17 HR in 270 at-bats last year in the Gulf Coast League, batting .305/.374/.630 for the year. And to his credit, he did cut his strikeout rate by nearly a third. Unfortunately, it’s still more than 1/4 of his plate appearances. There’s time to get it to manageable levels, and they’re not that far away. Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard deal with it well, and so can Cody Johnson, hopefully. I plan to go see Johnson play at Rome this year, which really does validate this answer, doesn’t it?
Bsta : Wow. There’s so many. But, if I had to choose one, I’d go with the most recent aquisition, Gorkys Hernandez. He put up awesome stats in the Tigers farm system (.303 BA, .413 SLG over 2 seasons). Now, those stats may not wow you, but remember, he’s only 20 years old. I was really hoping to see him at Spring Training this year, but I guess have to wait ’til next March.LSU31: Jon Gilmore. He could be the replacement for Chipper Jones at third. He can hit. His power is his calling card. He needs to work on his defense and his plate discipline in order to become a big time prospect that he has the potential to be. He hit .284 in 40 games for the GCL Braves. CB: Brandon Flowers. That guy has pop. And after hearing of his exploits in spring training, I would love to see him play. I hear he’s a lot of fun to watch swing the bat. And there was a good article in the AJC the other day.
- Realistically where do you see this team finishing?
Mark :
I think first is not out of the question, especially with everyone counting this as a two-horse race. The Phillies have major pitching issues that I think will come to roost, and the Mets bullpen looks shaky outside of Wagner and Heilman. If Sanchez doesn’t prove to be healthy, they may be a repeat of the ’06 Braves. Honestly, the most likely scenario puts us in with the Wild Card, but I can see us winning the division. If Hampton holds up and one of the young pitchers proves his worth, we’ll be dangerous in the playoffs.
Brent : Realistically, I see the Braves winning between 85 and 90 games, and being in the forefront of the wildcard race. I think 2nd place in the division is realistic, because the Mets really are a better team on paper, and they’re going to win more games unless these minor injury problems they’re having become cataclysmic. Even if that happens, Philadelphia is nearly as good as Atlanta - close enough where a small dose of luck could push them past us. That’s why realistically, I think we wind up 2nd in the division. It doesn’t matter. As Braves fans, we know all too well, however, that wild card teams are often the hottest team in the league. In fact, 2001 was the last time we had two division winners reach the World Series. I’m perfectly fine with the wild card. Let the Mets win 95 in the regular season, much like we used to do. I’d love to take on the Marlins role, for once. Bsta : 1st place. Yes, I said it. I don’t care who reads this, Mets fans, Philly fans, anybody. The Braves are not to be taken lightly, but everyone seems to be doing just that. And more seriously than in recent years. They act like we have no rotation, batting order, or bullpen. Heh. Do they even look at the team, or do they look at ‘05 and go, “That’s their team this year!?” I truly belive the Braves have the best, and most certainly deepest rotation in the division. They’re also better at most every position than their rivals. The two positions the Braves lose in is SS, and CF. And Ryan Howard is dominating at 1B, but Tex is a more all-around player, and beats out Howard there. And bullpens, though while most aren’t particularly strong, the Braves are certainly better than the Phillies in the department, and are neck and neck with the Mets. And that’s BEFORE Gonzo comes back. No, the Braves are to be taken seriously this year, and I’m not kidding. LSU31: I realistically see the Braves finishing as the 2008 National League East Champions. Our biggest weakness last year was our number 4 and 5 starters or lack there of. This year we have 7 starters that are capable to pitch well in the majors now. Doing the math means that 2 of the 7 will not be in the rotation. Which means if one or two go down, that we will be able to replace them with a major league ready pitcher. Our offense is probably the best in the division. The average OPS+ in for the 3 NL East contenders for 2008 based on the OPS of the projected starters in 2008 for the 2007 season was lead by the Braves. Only Mark Kotsay did not have an OPS+ of over a hundred. The Braves are being severely underrated by many fans. CB: 1st in the East. I just think we have a better team all-around than all the other teams. If you look at our rotation depth, which is better than the rest of the teams, the lineup from 1-8, which is ALSO better than the rest of the teams, the bullpen, which I find to be better than most of the teams in the division (when healthy), I just think we have it all this year. Time to start a new streak.

Off Day Tomorrow

The Braves have their only off day of Spring Training tomorrow. Jo-Jo Reyes will get the start against Houston on Wednesday, which is a night game at 7:05 PM. The Braves may conduct their next cut afterward, but I’m not exactly sure on this. Just a guess. The game on Thursday night will be on SportSouth at 7:05 PM against Detroit. Friday’s game is at 1:05 PM on FSN against Cleveland.

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I goofed

Five Questions: Atlanta Braves — The Hardball Times

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Let’s play some BLEEPING BASEBALL!!!


I am officially pumped. Nobody hits Frenchy with a stray changeup and lives to tell about it!

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Frenchy Hit By Pitch

Normally, I wouldn’t make a post about this, but Frenchy is one of my fave players, and also an asset to the team that we can’t do without for a long period of time. Apparently, Frenchy’s been hit by a pitch in the same place that he was in 2004 on the left side of his face.

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Why The Braves Are Better

Now, most of you (Braves fans) have probably come across a recent article under the title “Why The Mets Are Better” which came from ESPN and was posted in the AJC. And most of you probably know who wrote the article, and once that was discovered all was understood. But that doesn’t mean we weren’t left angry, or confused. So, even though I’m a bit late (hey, better late than never), I thought I’d post my thoughts on why the Braves are better.

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Bad Day For Braves

Today wasn’t the best day on either field for either split-squad team, but at least we tried to come back in both games instead of saying, “it’s only a Spring Training game” and giving up. That’s only one thing I like about this team. Even when we’re down 5-0, we seem to create runs out of nowhere. I think this will continue to happen throughout this season with the guys in our lineup and our pitching depth being so deep.

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Free-Agent Left-Overs

Free-Agent Left-Overs

Well, after a particularly slow off-season in respect to free-agents, there are still a few people left out in the market who can help the Braves. There aren’t a whole lot of people left on the market, but there weren’t a lot to begin with. Kyle Lohse would have been added, but it seems St. Louis has snatched him up. Anyway, some of these guys could be helpful this season, although most of them would come in due to injuries.

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Smoltz and Soriano like to pitch

Two key pitchers are making their spring training debut today in Spring Training. In honor of these two flamethrowers, let's check up on past flamethrowers:

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Point and laugh at my team

I should add that in the farm section (last 5-6 picks) I was choosing purely for comedic effect.

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The ‘Pen

I suppose “Coxsy” is doing a lot of running his fingers through his hair these days as he looks over his potential Opening Day roster and figures out who stays and who goes in the 2008 bullpen.

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The irrelevance has never been greater

The Official Site of The Atlanta Braves: News: Non-roster invitees lead Braves in tie

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Cuts, notes

Morton, Flowers among nine cut | ajc.com

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Jair Jurrjens: The Future?

Jair JurrjensYou had to be looking at Detroit if you were a Braves fan last year trolling the minor leagues for a team with the right young starting pitcher for John Schuerholz/Frank Wren to pick up in return for Renteria. Leyland was a good fit for Edgar and they had the arms, so it was a perfect match. Andrew Miller was the big fish, and the Tigers flipped him and Maybin for Miggy, but there was another solid pitcher in their system who got less attention, a fellow from Curacao with a funny name: Jair Jurrjens. When the deal went down, some in Braves Nation were asking: we got WHO for Renteria??!\
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Well, Jurrjens might just be a capstone piece in the future of our rotation. And this deal has the potential to go down as a Doyle Alexander-Smoltz Redux. With Smoltzy and Glavine riding into the sunset in the coming year or years, the glass arm of Hampton sure to tumble off into the infield any day now, and Hudson creeping into his 30s, the Braves need a new generation of arms to keep us competitive. This spring has been a breath of fresh air in this regard.\
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The 22-year-old Jurrjens has been impressive. He throws a nice array of pitches with good bite and surprising control for a young guy, His WHIP was 1.19 over 84 minor league starts. Last year he went 3-1 with a misleading 4.70 ERA in his taste of the Bigs, with a one-hit, six-inning outing against the same Indians team he wore out this spring during the near-famous, near-no-hitter. He has the make up of a reliable control pitcher who can, along with a progressing Cole Rohrbough and some of our other Double A up-and-comers, put the Braves in a position to have a in-house rotation renaissance.\
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The fate of the Braves continued success in the NL East relies on Wren’s ability to handle this transition from age to youth in the Starting Five and the Renteria-Jurrjens move was a brilliant opening step towards that goal.\
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~BH in LA

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The Spring Cut List Lengthens by 9

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Charlie Morton, Bobby Cox’s favorite Braves prospect in the Arizona Fall League as some might recall, has gotten his shipping papers to the Minors. Along with Morton, the list includes Tyler Flowers, another local C-1B prospect many are high on, pitchers Zach Schreiber, Phil Stockman, Matt DeSalvo and Jairo Cuevas, shortstops Javier Guzman and Diory Hernandez; and catcher J.C. Boscan. Here are the details from DOB over at the AJC.

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Little Update

Sorry for not posting before the game again yesterday. My Internet is currently out at my house because our DSL modem is pretty much dead. Alltel is sending us a new one and it should be here today, at the latest tomorrow. Hopefully it’s today. But nonetheless, that is why I was nowhere to be found during/before the game last night. Although, I’m sure not many, if any, people were looking for me.

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Starting Five

Last year’s starting rotation involved the hapless Mark Redman and the now-Royal Kyle Davies. Have we made any progress since then or will we be looking for more stop gaps like Anthony Lerew just to finish the season? Read the rest of this entry »

Allow Me to Introduce You to the Braves Coaches of 2008

I feel as though most fans know a lot about the players but little about the coaches. Most of them did not have successful playing careers, but most of them played or coached in the Braves system (excluding McDowell and Fultz) before joining the big-league club. Without further ado, here is your 2008 Braves coaching staff:

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Game so unimportant they didn’t bother to finish it

The Official Site of Major League Baseball: News: Boxscore

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Welcome to The Launching Pad- A Braves Blog

Ah, Spring. Down in Florida baseball of 2008 has fully ripened. The climate is beginning to warm up in Atlanta ready to welcome the Bravos and their new roster back home. And you can almost hear the cheers that will soon be erupting from Turner Field as you zoom by on I-75 wishing it was already April. Yes the unfolding of a fresh baseball season brings with it the revelation of…yet another blog.

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Busy Next Couple of Days

I’m just blogging to let you readers know that the rest of this week (and this weekend even) you will probably see fewer posts from me because of the current quarter at college is coming to an end. I have six days before the quarter is over (Wednesday is the last day). I have a lot of stuff I need to work on and I also need to study for my exams this weekend after we finish our last test this week. So, if you don’t hear a lot from me the next couple of days, that is why. I will post every chance I get, but I’ll be lucky to get a post in everyday. Just so you know what’s up.

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Win irrelevant; Jurrjens looking strong

The Official Site of The Atlanta Braves: News: Jurrjens continues to impress

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Talking Trade: Scott Thorman

Word has leaked out that Atlanta is seeking to trade Scott Thorman for a relief pitcher. Before we can gauge what teams might be interested in Scott Thorman, we need to figure out exactly what he brings to the table. What he brings to the table, Atlanta fans, is more than you’d think. While I obviously don’t think he’ll ever be an everyday player, I do think there’s some future for him in a platoon role, either as a DH or 1B. Here’s why. Scott Thorman put up some nice minor league numbers. In 2005 he hit .305 at Mississippi and .276 at Richmond. In 2006 at Richmond, he hit .298/.349/.508, which is plenty impressive. However, he has struggled in the majors. I understand minor league statistics do not always accurately project major league ability, but some do. It’s not batting average I’m looking at here, but batting average on balls in play. After all, the fields are the same size, and if there’s any area in which minor league players are close to equaling major league players, it’s defensively. Looking at Thorman’s minor league BABIP numbers, we see that they were consistently better than the average of .290. In the majors, though, the hits just aren’t falling in – Thorman has posted BABIPs in the .240’s for both major league seasons. This indicates that Thorman has had a run of poor luck in Atlanta, at least with regard to his batting average.

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Braves vs. Cardinals

Sorry for the late blog this morning, but I didn’t have to be in my classes today, so I opted to sleep in. But I’m up and ready for some Braves baseball, even if it is meaningless at this point.

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“Why is Spring Training in Florida?” is something I wondered as a kid

... and now I know why.

My flight to Orlando was cancelled due to the lovely weather here in Ohio. Alas, I did not get to see the sea of 60's but let's pretend I was there. Look! There goes Matt DeSalvo, #66.

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Who’s It Gonna Be?

Deep within man dwell those slumbering powers; powers that would astonish him, that he never dreamed of possessing; forces that would revolutionize his life if aroused and put into action.
- Orison Swett Marden

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